Analisis Forex & Kajian: 28.03.2023 - ECB will continue raising...

28.03.2023 12:23 PM

ECB will continue raising interest rates

Euro continues to rise as more and more people believe that the European Central Bank will not stop raising interest rates aggressively.

Just yesterday, ECB executive board member Isabelle Schnabel revealed that she had pushed for another rate hike during this month's meeting and said she would continue to do so in the future. She also commented that the governing council should avoid voicing clear monetary policy stance after the half-point increase in borrowing costs last March 16.

Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave verbal assurances that rates will continue to increase if ECB forecasts prove realistic. Schnabel's stance sheds light on how the central bank's decision to raise borrowing costs is treating the outbreak of financial instability in the banking sector that has plagued banks from the US to Switzerland. Its arguments prove the resilience of financial markets and confirm the health of eurozone banks.

The actions of ECB officials also signal how inflation is perceived by ECB officials. In this sense, Schnabel's stance points to a possible future approach to monetary policy contained in Lagarde's statement last week - there is no compromise between price stability and financial stability.

The ECB president gave a cautious signal of tightening after the March decision, which was overshadowed by the crisis around Credit Suisse. On the eve of the ECB rate hike, Swiss authorities offered a liquidity lifeline to the affected bank before UBS took over completely. But speaking to lawmakers in the European Parliament, Lagarde said it would have been inappropriate to give a harsher signal

Hawkish politicians, including Schnabel, have since taken a tougher stance. De Nederlandsche Bank Governor Klaas Knot recently noted that without the turmoil in the banking sector, inflation forecasts would allow for further interest rate hikes as early as the next meeting in May. "I still think we need to make another move in May, but I don't know the extent of it," he noted.

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that euro continued to rise after Friday's big drop.

Current technical picture shows that EUR/USD bulls have all the chances to continue growth towards new March highs. But for this to happen, the quote has to stay above 1.0800. Only by that will the pair be able to go beyond 1.0840 and rise to 1.0880 and 1.0930. In case of a decline below 1.0800, the pair will approach 1.0760 and 1.0725.

In GBP/USD, bulls are ready to keep storming the monthly highs as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained a hawkish stance yesterday. However, to keep the momentum, the quote has to stay above 1.2280 and break through 1.2340. That will give a certain rise to 1.2390 and 1.2450. Should bears take control of 1.2280, a breakdown will occur, which will push the pair down to 1.2220 and 1.2160.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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