Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.05.2025 - The ECB Should Not Delay...

30.05.2025 10:49 AM

The ECB Should Not Delay Rate Cuts

While the euro is trying to regain its monthly highs after a fairly significant correction seen this week, a survey of several economists shows that the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates twice more soon — and much earlier than many anticipate.

The published report suggests that the ECB should not wait too long between successive moves; otherwise, investors may conclude that the easing campaign has already ended, leading them to quickly revise their portfolios.

Respondents forecast a quarter-point cut on June 5 and another at the September meeting when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the consequences of the restructuring of global trade by U.S. President Donald Trump. This would lower the deposit rate to 1.75%, where, according to the survey, it is expected to remain stable until the end of 2026.

This outlook, while anticipated by many market participants, still causes some concern. Lower interest rates undoubtedly stimulate economic activity in the eurozone by making credit more accessible to businesses and consumers. However, there is a risk that excessively low rates could lead to the formation of financial bubbles and unjustified inflation growth — especially given Trump's trade wars, as the geopolitical uncertainty associated with U.S. trade policy has a significant impact on economic growth forecasts. Instability in global trade could slow growth rates, reduce investment, and increase financial market volatility. In such conditions, caution and flexibility in decision-making become key factors for central banks' success.

Skipping one or more meetings before resuming rate cuts could lead to communication problems with President Christine Lagarde, which would only worsen over time. Nearly 30% of economists believe the ECB may deliver another cut before markets conclude that rates have reached their floor. A quarter of respondents think the bank could afford a pause stretched over two meetings.

Clearly, the ECB fears confusing investors and will act cautiously and consistently. The minutes from the latest meeting showed that officials see the need to be a beacon of stability and avoid causing further surprises in an already unstable environment, which could exacerbate market turbulence. A stronger euro, cheaper oil, and weaker economic growth — all consequences of trade uncertainty — imply inflation could reach the ECB's target sooner than expected. However, risks such as supply chain disruptions and retaliatory tariffs from the European Union could revive price pressures in the future.

Economists predict that the ECB's new forecast next week will largely confirm the one presented in March, providing for weaker inflation this year and slower growth in 2026. However, they also warn that the forecasts may not fully capture the trade chaos the eurozone could face.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1340 level. Only then will it be possible to aim for a test of 1.1375. From there, a climb to 1.1420 could be attempted, but doing so without the support of major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate target remains at the 1.1450 high. In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around the 1.1300 level. If no strong buying is seen there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1260 low or consider long positions from 1.1221.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3495. Only this will allow aiming for 1.3540, above which a breakout will be quite challenging. The ultimate target will be the 1.3585 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3465. If they succeed, breaking this range would deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3435 low, with a prospect of reaching 1.3410.

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*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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Fundamental analysis

Jakub Novak,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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