S&P 500

Market overview on 29.05

A federal court in the US has struck down all of former President Trump's trade tariffs.

Major US indices on Wednesday: Dow -0.6%, NASDAQ -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.6%, S&P 500 at 5888, with a range of 5400–6200.

On Thursday morning, the media reported that a US federal court had overturned all of Trump's tariffs, stating that he had exceeded his authority—trade tariffs fall under the jurisdiction of Congress, not the President. Almost immediately, news broke that Trump had filed an appeal against the court's decision. However, US indices jumped in electronic trading following the initial report. The fact is that it is far from certain that the court will rule in Trump's favor on appeal. The issue of presidential overreach had already been raised back when the tariffs were first introduced.

US market trading recap for Wednesday:

The stock market showed strong gains on Tuesday but failed to extend the rally on Wednesday.

Major indices struggled through the session, weighed down by a lack of leadership and a pervasive sense of anticipation ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA 134.81, -0.69, -0.5%) earnings report after the close. Essentially, the session reflected corrective trading influenced by rising Treasury yields, a Financial Times report stating that the Trump administration ordered semiconductor software developers to halt sales to Chinese clients, and growing concerns over equity valuations.

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed in negative territory. The biggest losers were utilities (-1.4%), energy (-1.3%), and materials (-1.3%).

Small-cap stocks also underperformed, partly due to growth concerns. However, to be fair, trading volume was relatively low on a day when the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index fell below 5900 by the end of trading and closed near session lows.

There were a few bright spots, notably Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 88.47, +11.32, +14.7%) and Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO 1618.62, +115.01, +7.7%).

The former reported stronger-than-expected earnings, while the latter was upgraded from "neutral" to "outperform" at Robert W. Baird. Still, the overall market tone remained weak.

Decliners outpaced advancers by a 3-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

There were no significant US economic reports on Wednesday, though early in the day it was reported that the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.2% for the week. Purchase applications rose 2%, while refinancing applications declined by 7%.

Treasuries saw some initial buying after this report but later reversed course. The 10-year yield fell to 4.50%, while the 30-year yield touched 5.01% at its high before retreating.

By session end, the 10-year settled at 4.48%, and the 30-year at 4.98%. The bond market showed little reaction to either the $70 billion 5-year note auction, which saw decent demand, or the FOMC minutes from the May 6–7 meeting. The minutes highlighted growing uncertainty about the outlook and a potential for a tough trade-off if inflation proves more persistent while growth and employment weaken.

Markets largely viewed these notes as already known and outdated.

Year-to-date performance:

S&P 500: +0.1%

Nasdaq: -1.1%

DJIA: -1.1%

S&P 400: -3.7%

Russell 2000: -7.3%

Thursday's upcoming news:

The second reading of US Q1 GDP will be released, along with the weekly jobless claims report.

Energy: Brent oil at $66.10—a gain of roughly $1 on Thursday.

Conclusion:

The US market paused its upward movement on Wednesday. However, this does not mean the uptrend has been canceled. We continue to hold long positions in the US market, expecting the S&P 500 to test its yearly highs.

Mikhail Makarov, more analytics to come:

https://www.instaforthtex.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

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