empty
23.05.2025 08:15 AM
GBP/USD Overview – May 23: No Talks, but Hang in There

This image is no longer relevant

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly, but like EUR/USD, it has been rising for two weeks. At first glance, one might wonder what reasons traders have for such behavior. Seemingly, none. In the EUR/USD article, we listed several reasons behind the dollar's latest decline, but there may be many more. Take, for instance, the key market issue of Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Initially, we saw the implementation of all possible tariffs, followed by a small rollback in tariff rates. In essence, Trump caused damage first, then offered a minor discount. More and more experts are saying that negotiations with the U.S. are like negotiating at gunpoint — and they're right.

From the beginning, we've said that negotiations and ultimatums with threats are different things. The White House may speak of talks and a broken global trade architecture in need of reform, but in practice, the U.S. uses the leverage of its large domestic market to issue ultimatums: either pay more or face tariffs and sanctions. Washington threatens other nations, but American consumers end up paying for the tariffs as the prices of many familiar goods rise.

But enough of the rhetoric — let's return to the topic of negotiations. Two weeks ago, the market was swept by a wave of optimism. Preliminary discussions were held in Geneva about upcoming U.S.-China negotiations, which led to a 115% tariff reduction. Many assumed a trade deal was just weeks away since most duties were already rolled back. However, in practice, Washington and Beijing merely took a necessary step. If tariffs had remained above 100%, trade between the world's two largest economies would have been completely halted or severely constrained.

Who benefits from this? Sure, some companies could find alternative markets or use third-party countries for exports to the U.S., but these are just workarounds. Beijing and Washington agreed on tariffs that ultimately just raise prices for consumers, and essentially, that's where negotiations ended. China still refuses to yield to Trump's pressure, and Trump has no intention of offering concessions or even appearing genuinely interested in talks.

The same applies to U.S.–EU talks — they simply don't exist. From time to time, media outlets report scattered updates suggesting some consultations occur between Washington and Brussels, perhaps via phone calls. But that's not a real negotiation. As for other countries, the situation remains very quiet. Only the U.K. has signed a deal. The other 74 countries are likely still in informal consultations. Globally, the trade war has stopped escalating weekly but has not entered a clear de-escalation phase. In fact, complete de-escalation is impossible since Trump wants better terms for the U.S. that will increase federal revenue. Any deals made will only be under those terms.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of GBP/USD over the past five trading days stands at 83 pips, which is considered moderate for this pair. On Friday, May 23, we expect the pair to trade 1.3342–1.3508. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, indicating a clear bullish trend. The CCI indicator has not entered extreme zones recently.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3184

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains its bullish trend and continues to rise, ignoring all fundamental factors. If the de-escalation of the trade conflict continues — and that appears to be the direction — the dollar might begin to strengthen. However, the market seems driven by a deeply personal aversion to the dollar. We believe that while the trade war is easing, long positions are technically questionable, yet the market refuses to consider shorts. Therefore, long positions remain possible with targets at 1.3508 and 1.3550. If the price consolidates below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with a target of 1.3184.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

La UE prepara un contraataque

Durante el fin de semana se supo que EE. UU. impondrá aranceles del 30% a todos los productos de la UE a partir del 1 de agosto de este

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de julio. Tranquilidad, solo tranquilidad.

El par de divisas GBP/USD mostró una caída bastante significativa durante el viernes. En general, la libra esterlina ha estado cayendo durante 2 semanas, y este es un hecho

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de julio. La posición de la Fed y Trump permanece sin cambios.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó el viernes con un movimiento descendente suave y débil. Como ya hemos mencionado muchas veces, el movimiento actual es una corrección en estado puro

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

El oro volvió a subir

El precio del oro se estabilizó después de un fuerte aumento observado durante la sesión asiática de hoy. Los operadores siguen prestando mucha atención a las amenazas de imposición

Jakub Novak 10:31 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué implica la "Ley maravillosa" de Trump?

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes volvió a moverse a la baja, lo cual sigue causando cada vez más sorpresa. Por supuesto, ya hemos dicho en múltiples ocasiones

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué juego está jugando Trump con los aranceles?

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el martes mantuvo un ánimo de corrección. No hubo eventos macroeconómicos en este día, sin embargo, Donald Trump "leyó toda la lista" de países

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de julio. Nadie necesita más el dólar, Trump está indignado.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el lunes descendió ligeramente, pero todavía no se puede hablar de una tendencia bajista. Desde el punto de vista técnico, el par permanece

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de julio. Elegante. Donald Trump prolongó los plazos del "período de gracia".

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció durante el lunes con una inclinación bajista, aunque probablemente no hubo motivos de peso para el fortalecimiento del dólar. Recordemos que durante

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de julio. El mercado vuelve a posponer sus expectativas sobre el recorte de tasas de la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante el viernes, ya que en ese día la sesión comercial estadounidense, en esencia, no funcionaba. No hubo

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. Elon Musk crea el «Partido Americano»

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo inmovilizado prácticamente todo el día viernes. Esto se explica fácilmente, ya que el viernes se celebró el Día de la Independencia

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.