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31.03.2023 10:15 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 31
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Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The pair tested 1.0832 at a time when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good reason to sell. However, euro spurted upwards, testing 1.0850. At that time, the MACD had already moved above zero, which was a good signal to sell. This resulted in an upward movement of around 35 pips.

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Euro rushed up on Tursday due to the eurozone's consumer confidence indicator, a slight fall in inflation in Germany and downward revision to US GDP growth at the end of last year.

Today, Germany will release a report on its labor market, but much more interesting is the data on consumer prices in the eurozone. A rise in it could trigger a jump in euro, while a drop in the unemployment rate and hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde could bring the price to new monthly highs.

US statistics in the afternoon are no less interesting, as the core PCE index and data on personal income and expenditures could bring back demand for dollar, provided that the numbers are positive. Consumer sentiment and expectations indices from the University of Michigan could also affect the direction of EUR/USD as long as there is a strong divergence from expectations.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0911 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0945. Traders will see gains if the eurozone published good statistics. Price will also rise if there is another inflationary surge. However, when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0888, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0911 and 1.0945.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0888 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0862. Pressure will return if there is no bullish activity around the daily high and if the eurozone releases weak economic data. However, when selling, the MACD line should be under zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0911, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0888 and 1.0862.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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