Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, including some key reports. As a reminder, U.S. labor market and unemployment data are typically released on Friday, but tomorrow is Independence Day in the U.S. Therefore, all attention during the U.S. trading session should be focused on these reports, as well as the ISM Services PMI. During the European trading session, only the final estimates of the Services PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone will be released—entirely secondary data.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's key events, the only one of note is a speech by Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostic; however, this week, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Jerome Powell have already spoken so many times that the market has likely absorbed all the necessary information. By the way, nothing particularly important or new was conveyed by the central bank heads. However, Christine Lagarde did mention that inflation risks are elevated due to the trade war, and Jerome Powell referenced the labor market as a key factor in future monetary policy decisions. Relevant reports will be published today.

For the market, the trade war remains the most significant factor, with no signs of resolution yet. In the near term, tensions could escalate, as Donald Trump has not signed a single trade agreement (except with the UK). The deal with China is still not considered valid, as the details of the agreement are unclear. The European Union has expressed readiness to sign a trade agreement with the U.S., but has issued its own set of demands, which Trump may easily refuse.

Additionally, don't forget about the ongoing conflict between Elon Musk and Trump, which could escalate to the point of civil unrest or even revolution. None of these events clearly increases the market's willingness to buy the dollar in the medium term.

Conclusions:

On the second-to-last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction, as the direction of movement depends on the U.S. data. Also, remember that at any moment, Trump may make a decision that could once again crash the dollar. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" has been passed, and now a new round of conflict with Elon Musk may begin.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.