Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

There were no tests of the levels I identified earlier in the day due to extremely low volatility.

In the second half of the day, the direction of the pair will be shaped by data on the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and changes in household income and spending. Investors and traders closely monitor these figures, as they are key indicators of inflation and consumer activity—both crucial factors influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. In particular, the core PCE index is considered the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. An increase in this index may prompt the Fed to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy stance, which typically strengthens the U.S. dollar. Changes in consumer spending are also an important barometer of economic health: rising spending suggests consumer confidence and supports economic growth, while a decline could indicate looming economic trouble.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3750 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 1.3799 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3799, I'll exit the long position and open a short in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rally in the pound today is likely only after weaker-than-expected U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3714 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the 1.3750 and 1.3799 levels is then expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakdown of the 1.3714 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key bearish target will be the 1.3664 level, where I will exit the short and open a long position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers are likely to become active in the case of strong U.S. statistics.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3750 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the 1.3714 and 1.3664 levels can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Beginner traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly result in the loss of your entire deposit—especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.