USD/JPY

This morning, Tokyo's core CPI data showed a decline in inflation for the June estimate: the core index dropped from 3.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 3.1% y/y (with a forecast of 3.3% y/y), while the overall index stood at 3.1% y/y, compared to 3.4% y/y in May. The latest figures diminished investors' confidence in the Bank of Japan's strong commitment to raise interest rates, which also slowed the yen's appreciation seen yesterday.

However, this slowdown appears to be short-lived. The Marlin oscillator has shifted into negative territory, and in recent days, the price has already managed to break through the balance line support (red moving average), gradually increasing interest in selling the dollar. A break below yesterday's low of 143.77 — which was a significant level back in 2024 — will open the path toward the target range of 142.13–142.40. Beyond that lies a potential test of the MACD line at 141.50.

On the four-hour chart, the latest impulsive decline began when the price reversed from the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator simultaneously turned down from the zero line. These moments are marked by arrows. The MACD line has turned downward. The overall trend remains bearish, and we anticipate it will continue to develop.