Trade Review and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3713 occurred just as the MACD indicator began to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair moved up to the target level of 1.3753. Selling from that point provided an additional 20 points in profit.

The pound extended its gains on the momentum generated yesterday. Investors interpreted this as a sign of a potential softening in the Fed's hawkish stance, which weakened the U.S. dollar and supported the British currency. Since there are currently no domestic events expected to affect the pound, external factors remain dominant.

Ahead of the release of Q1 GDP figures, financial markets have entered a wait-and-see mode, leading to a minor correction and profit-taking on the pair. These data points, which reflect overall economic activity, are key indicators of economic health and will shape investor sentiment going forward. At the same time, the release of weekly initial jobless claims will provide insight into labor market conditions, which also influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Another important factor is the trade balance. A positive trade balance indicates economic strength, while a deficit may signal vulnerability and dependence on imports. Given the ongoing trade war under Trump, this figure is unlikely to be favorable.

For intraday trading strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy the pound today at around 1.3733 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.3799 (thicker green line). At 1.3799, I'll exit long positions and consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move downward. A weaker data set could support further pound gains.Important: Before entering a long position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3692 twice consecutively while the MACD is in oversold territory. This setup should limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal. Growth toward 1.3733 and 1.3799 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3692 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick move lower. The key target will be 1.3636, where I'll exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction for a 20–25 point rebound. Sellers are likely to become active if the data are strong. Important: Before entering a short position, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3733 twice consecutively while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A move toward 1.3692 and 1.3636 is expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or target for closing long positions (further growth is unlikely above this level)
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or target for closing short positions (further decline is unlikely below this level)
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for market entries

Important Note for Beginners

Forex beginners must be especially cautious when making market entries. It's often best to avoid trading just before key fundamental reports to steer clear of sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management principles and trade with large positions.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market mood is a losing strategy for intraday traders.