empty
24.06.2025 03:45 AM
EUR/USD Overview – June 24: Iran Exits Talks and Launches a Retaliatory Strike

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair traded extremely calmly on Monday, considering the intense fundamental backdrop that developed over the weekend. Recall that over the weekend, Donald Trump once again "changed his mind" and ordered an unexpected strike on three of Iran's nuclear facilities. As expected, the U.S. President claimed that all three sites were completely destroyed, while Iran reported that the American bombs inflicted no significant damage. Regardless, this marked another escalation in the Middle East conflict—one in which the United States is now openly involved.

Because of this, sharp volatility in either direction was expected on Monday. As noted earlier, such a military escalation should theoretically support the U.S. dollar, yet two previous escalations failed to deliver meaningful dollar strength. Moreover, earlier events did not involve direct U.S. engagement, whereas now, America is one of the direct parties in the conflict. Can the dollar still be viewed as a "safe haven" under these circumstances—especially when traders had already stopped seeing it that way before Saturday's events?

The dollar did strengthen overnight as markets opened on Monday, but by the time the European session began, it had already lost all its gains. In the second half of the day, news emerged that Iran had launched a missile strike on a U.S. military base in Syria, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi announced that Iran was exiting negotiations with the U.S. and Israel. If anyone hoped for a quick resolution to the conflict, it now seems unlikely. The dollar plunged in response.

Many analysts have long pointed out a simple truth: If Iran were willing to give up its nuclear program, it would have done so already. The fact that it hasn't suggests the program is seen as its primary means of defense—or even offense. Iran has lived under global sanctions for nearly 50 years yet continues its nuclear development undeterred. Trump's logic in targeting these facilities is understandable—but what does he hope these strikes will change?

Iran has long been building its critical infrastructure underground, especially facilities that could become "priority targets" in the event of war. While such bunkers can still be destroyed, the chances of success are much lower. At present, no one can say with certainty whether the targeted facilities were actually destroyed. Naturally, Trump had to declare "total victory," while Iran insists the targets were not fully hit. Thus, the conflict that Trump hoped to resolve has instead flared up with renewed intensity—making it the second major conflict he tried and failed to settle. Both sides will likely continue exchanging strikes, yet the dollar still cannot capitalize on the situation.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 24 is 77 pips, which is considered "moderate." On Tuesday, we expect the pair to trade between 1.1460 and 1.1614. The long-term regression channel is still pointed upward, indicating a continuing uptrend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, triggering only a modest downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1475

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains in an upward trend. The U.S. dollar continues to be heavily influenced by Trump's domestic and foreign policy. Additionally, the market often interprets data against the dollar or ignores it. There's a clear reluctance among market participants to buy the dollar under any circumstances. If the price trades below the moving average, short positions with targets at 1.1446 and 1.1353 are justified—but significant declines shouldn't be expected in the current environment. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions targeting 1.1597 and 1.1614 may be pursued as part of the ongoing trend.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Budget Is Now in Surplus, but the National Debt Isn't Falling

Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the first budget surplus since 2017. Many in the market may have interpreted this as great news for the dollar

Chin Zhao 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

European Commission Counts on Negotiations – the Euro Is in No Hurry to Decline

Trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. remain in the spotlight, and their outcome is expected to have the greatest impact on the future trajectory of the euro. From

Kuvat Raharjo 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Will Trump Fire Powell?

Will Donald Trump remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from office? It's not a hypothetical question. On the surface, the answer seems obvious — "no." Following the U.S. Supreme Court's

Irina Manzenko 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

The Dollar Demands a Resignation

The Powell Effect —much like the butterfly effect—is real. Markets are already betting on a sharp easing of monetary policy immediately after the Federal Reserve Chair steps down

Marek Petkovich 00:48 2025-07-15 UTC+2

UR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair dropped to a two-week low, but no significant sell-off followed, and during the early European session, the pair held above the 1.1650 level. The weakening

Irina Yanina 19:05 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EU Prepares to Retaliate

Over the weekend, it was revealed that the United States will impose 30% tariffs on all goods from the European Union starting August 1. In response, the EU is preparing

Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Trump Continues to Pressure U.S. Trade Partners (Potential Resumption of USD/JPY and Ethereum Growth)

The United States, through its president, continues to exert economic—and arguably geopolitical—pressure on its trade partners, which is having a ricochet effect on global trade and financial markets. But, oddly

Pati Gani 10:00 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Do Markets Like Tariffs?

Everyone sees what they want to see. For Donald Trump, the S&P 500 rally to record highs is proof that the market likes tariffs. For investors, it's a sign

Marek Petkovich 09:06 2025-07-14 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Let us recall that last week, there were also no significant reports, speeches, or any other notable events in either the European

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 14. Keep Calm and Carry On

The GBP/USD currency pair showed a rather significant decline on Friday. Overall, the British currency has been falling for two weeks now, and this is a very important fact that

Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.