empty
23.06.2025 12:12 AM
U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The United States brings many important economic events. Additionally, as I have mentioned several times, the ongoing war in the Middle East could greatly influence market sentiment. As a result, I expect considerable market activity over the next five days. However, it is unlikely to be an easy or straightforward week.

Among the economic events, two speeches by Jerome Powell—scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday—stand out immediately. Although the Federal Reserve meeting occurred this past week and no major decisions were made, Powell does not speak frequently. During the weekend, Donald Trump once again referred to Powell as an "idiot" for refusing to lower interest rates. The open confrontation between Trump and Powell continues, although the Fed Chair rarely responds to the U.S. president's remarks.

In addition to Powell's appearances, other noteworthy events include PMI data, existing home sales, durable goods orders, the final estimate of Q1 GDP, the PCE index, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. However, I believe that any news or developments related to the war involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. will take center stage. The problem is that such news may reach the markets very unexpectedly. It's highly unlikely that Trump or the authorities in Israel or Iran will inform the media in advance about imminent strikes. As a result, market direction and momentum may shift abruptly throughout the week.

This image is no longer relevant

As for the outlook for the U.S. dollar, I do not believe the Middle East conflict will provide significant support for it. Over the past two weeks, the dollar saw demand three times following reports of conflict escalation—but not once did this result in a trend or an independent bullish wave. And now that the U.S. is a direct participant in the conflict and Iran is threatening retaliation, demand for the dollar is unlikely to rise. In my view, the formation of bullish trend segments will continue.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still completely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider buying positions with initial targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but currently, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. With Trump, markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could seriously impact wave structures, but at the moment, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything possible to reduce demand for the dollar. The targets of the upward wave 3 are near 1.3708, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

My Core Analytical Principles:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
  2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in price direction never exists. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CHF pair retraced part of its decline from a new weekly low recorded during the Asian session and has temporarily paused its downward movement, stopping short

Irina Yanina 12:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Market dupes sellers

The split within the Federal Reserve, NVIDIA's successes, and a successful auction of 10-year US Treasury bonds allowed the S&P 500 to ignore the tariff chaos. Donald Trump announced tariffs

Marek Petkovich 12:02 2025-07-10 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 10th: Fundamental Event Overview for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are expected to be significant. So what could traders focus on today? The second

Paolo Greco 09:07 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its downward movement, which is corrective in nature and could end at any moment. The price remained below the moving average line

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. The pair maintained a slight downward bias, as we've noted in all of our recent articles. However, the current

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-07-10 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery, rising toward the 1.3700 level and approaching the weekly high reached earlier. Fundamental factors point to bullish dominance and the potential

Irina Yanina 12:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Markets unfazed by Trump's new tariff threats

Donald Trump's bark is louder than his bite. Markets have grown so accustomed to his rhetoric that the S&P 500 barely flinched at the White House's latest threat to slap

Marek Petkovich 11:53 2025-07-09 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair is holding steady at current levels with a bullish bias but limited movement following the release of inflation data from China—Australia's key trading partner. In June

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-07-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen extended its decline for the third consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a new two-week high above the key 147.00 level during the Asian

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Consumer lending in the US is slowing down

According to data, consumer lending in the U.S. grew at its slowest pace in three months in May amid a decline in outstanding balances on credit cards and other revolving

Jakub Novak 10:43 2025-07-09 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.