The EUR/USD currency pair moved sharply back and forth throughout Friday. The pair traded with high volatility for two consecutive days, and there is a clear and logical explanation for this. Before Friday, the dollar had been falling habitually and unremarkably. Why? Well, do we even need any major catalysts anymore? Just kidding. This week, Donald Trump threatened to raise all tariffs on all countries from his "blacklist," which he accuses of having "plundered and profited off America for years." In addition, U.S. immigration authorities began conducting raids to detain and deport all illegal immigrants. These raids sparked mass unrest (especially in Los Angeles), requiring the involvement of police and the National Guard to calm the outraged crowds. But such measures didn't help—and arguably made things worse.
They didn't help because the protests, riots, and demonstrations only intensified. Protesters began uniting into a large movement against Trump. Reports throughout the past week indicated that demonstrations were being planned in almost every major U.S. city. America is a nation of immigrants. Every second U.S. citizen is, in some way or generation, an immigrant. Even Elon Musk is an immigrant. Arnold Schwarzenegger too. And naturally, many people strive to get into the U.S. by any means possible—including illegally. In the past, immigration enforcement was often lenient due to high costs and the government's recognition that immigrants contribute in certain ways, and mass deportations could bring negative consequences.
Trump failed to understand that, which is why the U.S. is now engulfed in protests and unrest. Most strikingly, Trump's decision to deploy the National Guard was illegal—under current law, such actions must be coordinated with state governors. Trump, of course, didn't do that, so California Governor Newsom has already filed a lawsuit against him. At this point, no one is surprised anymore that Trump is being sued nearly every week.
Then came the Israel-Iran conflict—or rather, it flared up again. Trump made a series of statements essentially confirming that the strike on Iran's nuclear and military sites was carried out with Washington's direct support and at Washington's direction. What else could his words mean: "We gave Iran 2 months to sign the nuclear deal, and today (Friday—the day of the Iranian strike) is day 61"?
The dollar could have benefited from the new escalation in the Middle East, as markets have historically moved funds into the dollar during such geopolitical conflicts. But on Friday, the dollar strengthened only briefly and modestly. The reason? Trump's actions on the global stage, the ongoing economic uncertainty, and the trade war continue to push the market away from the U.S. currency. What the market fears most is what Trump might do in the next four years. His first four months have already been quite eventful.
As of June 16, the EUR/USD pair's average volatility over the past five trading days is 99 pips—considered "moderate." We expect the pair to move between 1.1452 and 1.1650 on Monday. The long-term regression channel is pointing upward, still indicating a bullish trend. The CCI indicator had entered the oversold zone, forming a bullish divergence that triggered a renewed upward trend—undoubtedly helped by Trump.
Nearest Support Levels:
S1 – 1.1475
S2 – 1.1353
S3 – 1.1230
Nearest Resistance Levels:
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1719
R3 – 1.1841
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend—Trump's domestic and foreign policies remain the dominant force impacting the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the market interprets data negatively for the dollar or ignores it altogether. We observe the market's complete reluctance to buy the dollar under any circumstances. If the price moves below the moving average, shorts toward 1.1353 are valid, but a deep fall in the current context is unlikely. If the price remains above the moving average, long positions toward 1.1597 and 1.1650 may be considered in line with the prevailing trend.
Explanation of Illustrations:
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
