Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.06.2025 - Results of the Second Round...

11.06.2025 11:32 AM

Results of the Second Round of U.S.–China Negotiations

The United States and China have concluded two days of important trade negotiations with a plan to resume the flow of sensitive goods — this framework now awaits approval from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

After 20 hours of talks in London, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that both sides had developed a structure to implement the Geneva consensus. "First, we needed to eliminate the negativity," he said. "Now we can move forward and try to build positive trade, to increase trade."

Lutnick also noted that the Chinese had pledged to accelerate the delivery of rare earth metals, which are crucial for U.S. automotive and defense companies, while Washington would ease some of its export control measures — signaling progress on two of the most contentious issues in bilateral relations.

This step can undoubtedly be viewed as a tactical maneuver by both sides aimed at reducing tensions and establishing a platform for further dialogue. Rare earth metals, as critical raw materials for high-tech industries, hold special strategic significance, and Beijing's promise to expedite deliveries signals a willingness to compromise in key areas. Likewise, Washington's softening of export controls can be interpreted as a goodwill gesture intended to demonstrate an interest in constructive cooperation. However, the extent of this easing and its actual impact on trade between the countries remains to be assessed. Despite these positive signals, it is important to remember that U.S.–China relations remain complex and multifaceted. Numerous other issues still require attention and agreement, including intellectual property, cybersecurity, and the trade deficit.

According to China's chief trade negotiator Li Chengang, the U.S. and Chinese delegations will present the proposal to their respective leaders. The talks were "deep and candid," he told reporters in a brief statement.

Although the positive tone may reassure investors concerned about a split between the world's largest economies, few details were provided, and the deal could still be rejected by top leadership. The discussions also did little to address major issues such as China's substantial trade surplus with the U.S. or Washington's belief that Beijing is dumping goods in foreign markets.

Some experts note that allowing technology critical to China's military progress to become a bargaining chip would represent a major shift from Washington's previous stance, which justified export controls on national security grounds. It would also open the door for China to use its dominance in rare earth metals to push back against further restrictions on advanced chips.

The U.S. and China are roughly a third of the way through a 90-day truce on the retaliatory tariffs imposed on each other back in April. Although the Geneva agreement significantly reduced tariffs, trade remains disrupted — Chinese exports to the U.S. in May posted their sharpest drop since early 2020, when the pandemic brought China's economy to a halt.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to reclaim the 1.1430 level. Only this would allow for a test of 1.1460. From there, it may be possible to push toward 1.1490, though doing so without the support of major players will be quite difficult. The furthest upward target is the high at 1.1530. In case of a decline, I expect serious buying activity only near the 1.1400 level. If no buyers show up there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1361 low or to consider opening long positions from 1.1314.

Regarding the GBP/USD technical setup, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3510. Only then can they aim for 1.3545, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest upward target is the 1.3580 level. If the pair declines, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3473. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and drive GBP/USD down toward the 1.3450 low, with the potential to extend losses to 1.3415.

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