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The USD/CAD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum today, though traders remain cautious ahead of the key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release.
As a preferred inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, the PCE report could shape market expectations on future rate cuts, potentially boosting demand for the U.S. dollar and offering new support to USD/CAD.
Weak crude oil prices continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar, providing an additional tailwind for the pair. However, concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and the prospect of further Fed rate cuts this year are limiting aggressive dollar buying. At the same time, reduced expectations for a June rate cut by the Bank of Canada are helping to stabilize the Canadian dollar and cap USD/CAD's upside.
While the pair is on track for a modest weekly gain, a clearer confirmation of strong buying is needed before declaring a firm recovery from this year's lows near 1.3700. From a technical perspective, with daily chart oscillators still in negative territory, a sustained rally remains uncertain.
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