Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.05.2025 - Stock Market on May 30th:...

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30.05.2025 10:45 AM

Stock Market on May 30th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Resume Decline

At the close of the latest regular session, U.S. stock indices posted modest gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.40%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.39%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28%.

However, after the close of the regular session, futures on U.S. indices fell as traders struggled with growing uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, which remain entangled in legal disputes, sluggish negotiations, and shifts in policy. This decline highlighted market nervousness caused by the lack of a clear strategy regarding U.S. trade relations with other countries, creating obstacles for investment decision-making. Simultaneously, investors kept a close eye on developments in the corporate sector. Expectations regarding the future financial results of major companies and news about mergers and acquisitions had a significant impact on stock prices. The macroeconomic backdrop couldn't be ignored either. GDP data became a key benchmark for determining the market's direction.

Futures contracts on the S&P 500 fell by 0.2%. The Asian index dropped by 0.7%, erasing its biggest monthly gain since November 2023. European indices were almost unchanged. The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds showed slight gains.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday that trade negotiations with China have made little progress. This statement, against the backdrop of already tense relations between the world's two largest economies, immediately affected financial markets. Investors, fearing an escalation of the trade war, began actively selling off risk assets again, leading to declines in stock indices and strengthening of safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. However, Bessent's statement lacked details, fueling further speculation. It remains unclear what specific issues have become stumbling blocks. Possible topics include intellectual property protection, access for U.S. companies to the Chinese market, or the volume of Chinese imports of American agricultural products.

"Whatever happens, markets understand that a prolonged period of uncertainty lies ahead," said Win Thin, head of global markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. "Maintaining tariffs increases the risks of stagflation and negatively impacts both the dollar and equities."

Today, traders' focus will shift to the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of core inflation, excluding food and energy. This will provide signals on the state of the economy and the prospects for interest rate cuts. Although the impact of Trump's tariffs on April's data is expected to be modest, the effects of trade policy will likely become more apparent in the coming months.

As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $5921. This would support growth and open the way for a push toward the next level at $5933. Another priority for bulls will be to establish control over $5967, which would further strengthen their position. If the market moves downward amid declining risk appetite, buyers must defend the $5897 level. A breakdown would quickly push the instrument back to $5877 and open the path toward $5854.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.