empty
22.05.2025 11:51 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 22, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise and consolidated above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1320. As a result, the euro may continue appreciating toward the next resistance zone of 1.1374–1.1380. A consolidation below 1.1320 would favor the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward the support zone of 1.1260–1.1282. The bullish trend is gaining momentum once again.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart is beginning to shift. The most recent upward wave broke above the previous high, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. This confirms a transition to a bullish trend. While news about successful negotiations between the U.S. and China and a hawkish Fed stance briefly supported the bears, Donald Trump's policies are once again placing heavy pressure on the U.S. dollar.

There was no significant news on Wednesday, but overall trader sentiment remains highly negative—negative toward the dollar. Although this week's economic background gave no particular reason for the dollar to fall (mainly due to the lack of data), dollar bulls still found themselves under pressure as traders resumed their buying offensive. It is likely that the dollar's modest growth last month was driven by profit-taking from earlier short positions. Since those trades were based on selling the dollar, the currency was able to show some limited recovery. But as traders received no new data or headlines suggesting that the worst was over for the U.S. economy, government, or currency, they reverted to their prior stance. The trade war continues, negotiations with many countries are stalling, and the U.S. credit rating is being downgraded.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213, signaling the possible resumption of the bullish trend—also confirmed by the wave structure. Growth may continue toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1495. No divergences are currently forming on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In the last reporting week, professional traders opened 15,357 long positions and 6,302 short positions. Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" category has long been bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 209,000, while short positions total 124,000, and the gap continues to widen. The euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. This trend remains unchanged.

For fifteen consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Despite the widening interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed—which still favors the U.S. dollar—Trump's policies are a much more significant factor for traders, as they could trigger a recession in the American economy. As a result, dollar bulls are unable—or unwilling—to capitalize on Fed policy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone (May 22):

Eurozone:

  • Germany Services PMI (07:30 UTC)
  • Germany Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC)
  • Eurozone Services PMI (08:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone Ifo Business Climate Index (08:00 UTC)

United States:

  • Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. Services PMI (13:45 UTC)
  • U.S. Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
  • Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for May 22 is full of noteworthy releases, some of which may influence market sentiment throughout the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.1374–1.1380 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1320 and 1.1260–1.1282—or on a close below 1.1320. I previously recommended considering long positions on a close above 1.1265–1.1282 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1338 and 1.1374. The first target has already been reached, and there is no reason to close long trades just yet.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. June 3rd. Waiting for EU Inflation Data

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone and rose to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1454. A rebound from this level worked in favor

Samir Klishi 11:06 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 3, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday consolidated above the 161.8% retracement level at 1.3520. Thus, the pound's upward movement may continue today and throughout the week toward

Samir Klishi 11:05 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Forex forecast 03/06/2025: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:47 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of GBP/CAD Cross Currency Pairs, Tuesday June 03, 2025

From what is seen on the 4-hour chart of the GBP/CAD cross currency pair, there appears to be a Divergence between the GBP/CAD price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator

Arief Makmur 08:23 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Tuesday June 03, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the EUR/JPY cross currency pair which moving below the WMA (21), which also has a decreasing slope and the appearance of Convergence

Arief Makmur 08:23 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 3, 2025

Risk appetite on Monday was widespread: the S&P 500 rose by 0.41%, oil by 1.71%, gold by 2.37%, the dollar index dropped by 0.63%, and the yield on 5-year

Laurie Bailey 05:17 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 3, 2025

Amid strengthening risk market trends and a 0.63% decline in the US dollar, the British pound rose by 93 pips. The price is now seriously poised to target the 1.3635

Laurie Bailey 05:17 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 3, 2025

On Monday, the yen strongly broke through the MACD line support and the target level at 143.45, moving 134 pips. The Marlin oscillator has settled into the bearish territory

Laurie Bailey 05:17 2025-06-03 UTC+2

XAG/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, at the start of the new week, silver is rising, recovering above the psychological $33.00 level and offsetting part of Friday's losses. However, the intraday rally lacks strong momentum

Irina Yanina 18:40 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 2-5, 2025: sell below 1.1474 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1437, below the Murray 6/8 level and within the uptrend channel formed on May 9. The instrument has an area where buyers have found it easier

Dimitrios Zappas 18:38 2025-06-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.