empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
02.05.2025 10:03 AM
The ECB Has No Other Choice
Open trading account Open demo account

The European currency continues to lose ground against the U.S. dollar as traders increasingly place bets on the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy decisions.

According to data, the chances of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in September have risen significantly. This has been driven by several factors, including a slowdown in eurozone inflation and signs of weakening economic growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Recent statistical data indicates that inflation is gradually approaching the ECB's 2% target, which allows the regulator to consider easing monetary policy. At the same time, economic indicators such as the PMI business activity index and retail sales signal a decline in growth rates, which could negatively impact employment and investment.

Today, new eurozone inflation data will be released, which could further increase the likelihood of another rate cut, as overall inflation is expected to fall to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March. For reference, inflation stood at 2.5% back in January. Additionally, weak reports on manufacturing PMIs across the eurozone will be published today, reinforcing confidence in the ECB's course of action.

Given these circumstances, many traders believe that the ECB may decide to lower its key interest rate at the next meeting. Such a move could stimulate economic activity by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. However, one must also consider the risks of a potential rebound in inflation due to recently introduced U.S. tariffs, which could require the ECB to take a more cautious approach to monetary policy.

Overall, the situation remains dynamic and requires close monitoring by both the regulator and market participants. The ECB's decision will carry significant implications for the eurozone economy.

Clearly, expectations of lower borrowing costs from the ECB have grown over the past month, as U.S. tariffs have eased concerns about the early stages of the region's economic recovery. Eurozone business activity surveys point to weaker performance, and the unexpectedly strong euro reinforces the view that inflation will continue to decline. Some traders are betting that policymakers will cut rates by as much as 75 basis points to 1.5% over the next four months.

Money markets are currently pricing in 67 basis points of additional ECB rate cuts this year, implying that two quarter-point cuts are fully priced in, with a 68% chance of a third. This would bring the key rate down to 1.5%, compared to expectations just a month ago that it would only fall to 2%.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

At the moment, buyers need to focus on breaking through the 1.1337 level. Only this would open the path toward testing 1.1386. From there, the pair could target 1.1437, though reaching that level without strong support from major market players will be difficult. The furthest target remains the 1.1487 high. If the instrument declines, I expect meaningful buying activity only near the 1.1265 level. If no buyers appear there, it would be wise to wait for a new low around 1.1215 or consider entering long positions from the 1.1185 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

Pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3315. Only this will allow them to target 1.3354, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The final target would be the 1.3394 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of the 1.3280 level. If they succeed, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3250 low, with potential continuation toward 1.3205.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
Analysis of EUR/USD on June 5, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has transformed into an upward structure and continues to maintain this formation. I believe there is little doubt that
Chin Zhao
20:03 2025-06-05 +02:00
1285
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 5th (U.S. Session) Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 143.25 during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above
Jakub Novak
19:58 2025-06-05 +02:00
1120
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

During the European session on Thursday, the Japanese yen maintained stability, allowing the USD/JPY pair to hold above the key 143.00 level amid a moderate rise in the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today the AUD/JPY pair is attracting new buyers. Recent Chinese data, including the private Caixin survey, showed a moderate acceleration in growth in China's services sector
Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair continues to decline. Fundamental factors support bearish sentiment, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward. Reports of a trade agreement between
Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2

The Market Finds Good in the Bad

Markets have risen for the third consecutive day, interpreting the current situation as widespread trading uncertainty — far from a market crash. This allows for a calmer and more rational
Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 5? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. Only two secondary reports from the UK and the US are all traders will get today. The construction sector activity report
Paolo Greco 06:39 2025-06-05 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 5: Britain Is America's Best Friend, but Still Has to Pay

The GBP/USD currency pair traded rather calmly on Wednesday, as there were few important events and reports during the day. As we expected, the business activity indices (excluding ISM)
Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 5: Trump Will Continue Pressuring the EU

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday. As we mentioned yesterday, there was no reason to expect the business activity indices to influence trading — especially the European
Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Trump Once Again Fails to Persuade Powell

Donald Trump and Jerome Powell held a meeting at the White House last week. This news went largely unnoticed due to the scant details provided. Only general information about
Chin Zhao 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June ECB Meeting: Preview

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the results of its next meeting. Although the formal outcomes of the June meeting are virtually predetermined, the future prospects for further
Irina Manzenko 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

The Dollar Returns to the Battlefield

When there is no unity among allies, things don't go smoothly. Following mutual accusations between the U.S. and China, Donald Trump commented that Xi Jinping is a very tough
Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-06 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 5. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:01 2025-06-05
Forecast
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-06-19 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 5-9, 2025: sell below $3,387 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)
06:36 2025-06-05
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-06-05 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – June 5: Trump Will Continue Pressuring the EU
03:52 2025-06-05
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-06 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 5
08:10 2025-06-05
Forecast
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-06-06 UTC--4
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 5, 2025
11:22 2025-06-05
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.