empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
21.04.2025 11:46 AM
Markets in limbo: awaiting next shock or revival
Open trading account Open demo account

After the rollercoaster ride of early April, the US stock market seems to have come to a standstill. The S&P 500 is neither alive nor dead — it's starting to resemble Schrodinger's cat. All it would take is one shock event for the broad equity index to tumble back into bear-market territory. And a social media post by Donald Trump could be that event. This is a man whose words move trillions. Corporate America has never seen anything like it. Should we really be surprised by a spike in volatility?

S&P 500 volatility trends

This image is no longer relevant

There is a reason the S&P 500 has plunged and is now stuck, awaiting further guidance from the man in the White House. The Republican firebrand has impressed investors with bold talk of shifting from short-term pain to long-term prosperity for the US. However, no one knows how far Trump is willing to go. Will this pain spiral into a recession? Or could negotiations between Washington and foreign capitals ultimately lead to a rollback of tariffs?

Some Wall Street firms are starting to issue binary forecasts for the S&P 500. Crossmark Global Investments, for instance, says the index could plunge to 4,000 in the event of a recession, or soar to 5,800 if the US manages to avoid one.

The trouble is that if Trump follows through with his pledge to eliminate the US current account deficit, American equities could take a serious hit. Historically, US trade imbalances have tended to shrink during economic downturns.

US foreign trade dynamics as percentage of GDP

This image is no longer relevant

This stems from the fundamental link between the current and capital accounts in the balance of payments. When the current account is negative, capital flows into the US to offset the imbalance. However, as the deficit narrows, capital flows out, weakening the USD index and making investments in American equities less attractive. After all, what is the point in buying US stocks if the dollar is about to lose 30%?

The White House's efforts to rebalance trade through the largest tariffs seen since the early 20th century — along with demands that other nations boost US imports — will inevitably reduce foreign income, making those countries less able to buy US-issued stocks and bonds. This is a structural shift with the potential to trigger a serious pullback in the S&P 500.

This image is no longer relevant

Instead of pursuing a backup strategy, Donald Trump is making matters worse by going after Jerome Powell. If the Fed's independence is truly undermined, confidence in the US dollar could sink to historic lows, accelerating capital flight from the country.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be taking shape on the daily chart of the S&P 500 — but for that to happen, bulls need to reclaim the inside bar. A break above the 5,325 high would trigger a buy signal. Conversely, a clean break below the 5,250 low would reopen the path for short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement EUR/GBP Cross Currency Pairs, Thursday June 19, 2025. With the movement of the EUR/GBP price on its 4-hour chart moving above the WMA (21) which has a slope that is going upwards and the appearance of convergence between
Arief Makmur
11:45 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday June 19, 2025. Although on its daily chart the Nasdaq 100 index appears to be moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which has a slope that is going upwards, but being stuck
Arief Makmur
11:45 2025-06-19 +02:00
1015
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bank of England to Keep Rates Unchanged

Today, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25% and signal that it is maintaining its approach of one cut every other meeting, as policymakers
Jakub Novak 11:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Fed Maintains Its Previous Position

The U.S. dollar responded with growth, while risk assets such as the euro and pound declined. Following yesterday's meeting, Federal Reserve officials stated they expect two interest rate cuts
Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Iran-Israel War Has Yet to Exert Significant Negative Influence on Markets (Limited downside risk for gold and upward momentum for #USDX remains possible)

As expected, the U.S. central bank left all key monetary policy parameters unchanged, once again citing ongoing uncertainty about the future state of the national economy—a factor that has become
Pati Gani 09:14 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Market Keeps Its Options Open

While the White House and the Federal Reserve are in wait-and-see mode, the market has also decided to hold steady. Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision
Marek Petkovich 09:08 2025-06-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The only points of attention today will be Christine Lagarde's speeches and the results of the Bank of England meeting, which will
Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 19: UK Inflation and the Bank of England Meeting

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday, though the day before, it had posted a substantial decline in the second half of the session—more than 100 pips
Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 19: Trump Continues to Work Wonders

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Wednesday than the previous day. However, the previous day's significant movement also began only closer to the evening. It was not related
Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-06-19 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, the Bank of England, and Geopolitics

GBP/USD traders did not react to the UK inflation growth report that was published on Wednesday, just before the June Bank of England meeting. The focus of the market remains
Irina Manzenko 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Canadian Dollar Still Looks Like a Favorite

Markets remain cautious as several high-impact events loom that could significantly alter the risk balance—namely, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday evening and a potential U.S. intervention in the war between
Kuvat Raharjo 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Caught in a Vicious Cycle

The U.S. dollar has become an outcast—not just globally, but even at home. The White House supports everything from stock indices to Bitcoin and even gold through policy uncertainty
Marek Petkovich 00:42 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Top analytics

EUR/USD Overview – June 18: Will the Fed Save the Dollar?
03:57 2025-06-18
Fundamental analysis
EUR/USD Forecast for June 18, 2025
05:49 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 18: Pound Remains in a Flat Range
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 18: The Dollar Rises Paradoxically
03:56 2025-06-18
Trading plan
USD/JPY Forecast for June 18, 2025
04:58 2025-06-18
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.