empty
20.09.2022 10:45 AM
Markets cautious ahead of FOMC meeting

Gold is trading cautiously as market participants are waiting for the results of the FOMC meeting.

At the moment, the yellow metal is trading at 1,673 US dollars per troy ounce, having gained just 1% in yesterday's session.

This image is no longer relevant

This goes in contrast to other precious metals. Thus, palladium futures went up by 5.55%, platinum futures rose by 2.28%, and silver advanced by 1.03%. All of the precious metals posted gains amid the weakness of the US dollar. After a decline of 0.15%, the US dollar index is now holding at 109.77.

This image is no longer relevant

Traders expect the Fed to announce another rate hike following the FOMC meeting this Wednesday. Starting from March 2022, the US Federal Reserve raised the funds rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018. The regulator continued the streak of rate hikes at all consecutive FOMC meetings. As a result, the interest rate moved from almost zero to its current level of 225-250 basis points. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker, there is an 82% probability that the Fed will raise the rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday. This will be the third 75-basis-point interest rate hike this year.

The Fed has been focused on bringing inflation down to the acceptable level of 2%. Yet, inflation is very persistent and is running at peak levels. The consumer price index reached a 41-year high in July 2022, hitting 9.5%. The fresh data shows that inflation remains extremely high, coming at 8.3% in August.

For the most part, the decline in inflation is associated with lower energy costs as the gasoline index fell by 7.7% in July. At the same time, prices for other essential goods continue to stay elevated. Food prices rose by 13.5% for the year ending in August.

This image is no longer relevant

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Over that period, prices for food at home increased 13.5 percent, the largest 12-month percentage increase since the period ending March 1979. Prices for food away from home increased 8.0 percent for the year ended August 2022, the largest over-the-year percentage increase since an 8.4-percent increase in October 1981."

The graph above shows the 12-month percentage change in four categories of the consumer price index. This clearly shows that the US Federal Reserve is still far from reaching its inflation target of 2%. Apparently, the regulator has had almost no success in reducing inflation even though it was raising rates for the last four consecutive FOMC meetings. This time, the central bank is very likely to introduce another big rate hike of 75 basis points.

Even another rate hike may not bring inflation closer to its target level. The consensus among economists is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to the range of 3.5-4%. It should be noted that historically the Fed had to increase rates to the level equal to the inflation level in order to lower it. Besides, even the most aggressive rate hikes made by the Fed in the past were carried out over several years.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

XAU/USD。分析與預測

今日,黃金保持著正面的基調;然而,多頭行動謹慎,傾向於在重要的美國非農就業報告(NFP)發布前避免積極買入。隨著市場重新調整,美國美元走強對黃金構成逆風,限制了其上行空間。

Irina Yanina 15:30 2025-06-06 UTC+2

WTI. 西德克薩斯中質原油。交易員等待非農就業數據

西德克薩斯中間基原油 (WTI) 價格維持在三日範圍的中間位置。 價格受到美中貿易談判恢復希望的支持,這提升了對全球兩大經濟體燃料需求強勁的預期。

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

歐洲央行會議結果及克里斯蒂娜·拉加德記者會

隨著歐洲央行決定降息,歐元作出顯著上升的反應。但為什麼會這樣呢?讓我們來拆解原因。

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

6月6日需要注意什麼?新手的基本事件分析

宏觀經濟報告分析: 週五預計將發布相當大量的宏觀經濟報告,但大多數不會引起交易者的興趣。例如,德國的工業生產報告或歐元區的零售銷售報告。

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

2025年6月6日英鎊/美元匯率概況

星期四,英鎊/美元貨幣對繼續其上升趨勢,整體表現平穩且不急躁。當日英鎊或美元均沒有任何消息。

Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

2025年6月6日的 EUR/USD 概覽

即使在歐洲中央銀行(ECB)會議結果公佈後,歐元/美元貨幣對於週四的交易依然一片寧靜。值得注意的是,此次事件並無懸念。

Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

拉加德:歐盟經濟不會受損

今日,歐洲監管機構召開會議,作出了顯而易見且預期中的決定,將所有三個利率再次下調25個基點。這項決定幾乎得到了所有歐洲央行理事的一致通過,僅有一位決策者反對這次降息。

Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

美元/日元。分析及預測

在週四的歐洲交易時段,日元保持穩定,使得美元/日元對在美國美元適度上升的情況下能夠維持在關鍵的143.00水準以上。 投資者相信,由於通脹上升,日本央行將繼續加息,這已經連續四個月侵蝕了日本的實際工資。

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY。分析與預測

今天,AUD/JPY 貨幣對吸引了新的買家。最新的中國數據,包括私營財新調查顯示,中國5月服務業的增長有所加速,PMI從4月的50.7上升至5月的51.1,符合市場預期。

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

美元/加元。分析與預測

美元/加元匯率持續下跌。基本面因素支持看跌情緒,表明現貨價格的最大阻力路徑仍為下行。

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.