Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 142.88 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of 142.88 provided an entry point for buying the dollar under scenario #2, although significant growth did not materialize.

Today, we will closely monitor scheduled speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Austan D. Goolsbee and Lorie K. Logan. These events represent an opportunity for investors and traders to gather valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's assessment of the U.S. economy and the prospects for monetary policy. FOMC members' speeches traditionally have a significant impact on market sentiment. In particular, remarks by Goolsbee and Logan could shed light on internal FOMC disagreements and the balance of power between the "hawkish" and "dovish" camps. Data on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) and changes in factory orders are also expected, but significant market movements are likely only if actual figures sharply diverge from forecasts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 143.12 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 143.83 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 143.83, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move downward). Strong U.S. data could support good upward movement in the pair today.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 142.70 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 143.12 and 143.83.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 142.70 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which should quickly push the pair downward. The key target for sellers will be 142.11, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point upward move). Pressure on the pair is expected to persist today.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.12 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 142.70 and 142.10 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It's important to follow the overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.