The economic calendar for the upcoming week does not feature many high-impact events that would significantly affect the EUR/USD pair. Any noteworthy developments in the negotiation process between the US and China (or the US and the EU) are likely to overshadow macroeconomic reports. However, in the absence of major news, similar to what we experienced last week, the usual fundamental factors may still take center stage.
Monday
During the Asian session, China will release April industrial production data. This is a fairly important release, as it will reflect the economic impact of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on April 9. According to forecasts, production in April is expected to rise by 5.5% year-over-year, which would be a drop from March's 7.7%—the highest growth since 2021. Nevertheless, 5.5% is still a solid number. If the data comes in "green," risk appetite could increase, supporting EUR/USD buyers.
Final CPI figures for the eurozone in April will be released during the European session. Forecasts suggest no revisions to the preliminary readings (headline CPI at 2.2%, core CPI at 2.7%). The report will only influence EUR/USD if the final data deviates from earlier estimates.
Several Federal Reserve members will also speak on Monday: New York Fed President John Williams (a voting member), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter in 2025), Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson (permanent voter), and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (non-voter). They may comment on last week's U.S. CPI and PPI data, which showed inflation slowing in April. However, since markets have already priced in a status quo outcome at the June Fed meeting (only an 8% chance of a rate cut), cautious remarks from Fed officials are unlikely to trigger significant EUR/USD volatility.
Tuesday
Germany will release its Producer Price Index (PPI), which turned negative in March (-0.7% y/y). Forecasts for April suggest a reading of -0.3%. This could pressure the euro as speculation grows around another European Central Bank rate cut in June (hinted at by Francois Villeroy de Galhau).
The eurozone consumer confidence index, which has remained negative since June 2018, is also due Tuesday. It dropped to -16.7 in April, its lowest level since December 2023. A slight rebound to -16.0 is expected in May, but this likely won't significantly affect EUR/USD.
Wednesday
Wednesday is relatively quiet. The ECB will publish its biannual Financial Stability Review, assessing potential risks and vulnerabilities in the euro area's financial system. Although it may not usually affect the market significantly, it can provide valuable context.
Fed officials Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) will speak during the U.S. session. Although neither votes on policy this year, their remarks could influence EUR/USD due to a lack of other major events.
Thursday
Thursday is likely to be the most informative day of the week. PMI reports from major eurozone economies will be released—key indicators for the ECB. May's data is expected to remain in line with April's figures. For example:
- Germany's manufacturing PMI is forecast at 48.8 (vs. 48.4 previously).
- Germany's services PMI is expected to rise to 49.6 (from 49.0).
- The eurozone services PMI is of particular interest. In April, it nearly fell into contraction at 50.1. A drop below the 50-point mark in May could pressure the euro and spark selling in EUR/USD.
Germany's IFO business climate index will also be released. Forecasts suggest continued improvement, with the index expected to rise to 87.5 in May (from 86.9 in April).
Initial jobless claims are due in the U.S. session, with expectations around the recent weeks' average of 229K. Only a significant deviation would move the EUR/USD pair.
Additionally, the May U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released. It stood at 50.2 for the past two months but is expected to dip to 49.9. A reading below 50 could hurt the dollar, while a stronger print would support it.
Friday
Friday is nearly empty for EUR/USD traders. Germany will publish final Q1 GDP data, which are expected to match the initial reading (+0.2% q/q, -0.2 % y/y).
In the U.S., new home sales for April are expected to increase by 8.9% (vs. 7.4% in March).
Key speakers include ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook (a voting member).
Conclusions
The upcoming week's calendar features a few macroeconomic releases for EUR/USD, though it is not heavily booked. The PMI and IFO reports will be the most important. Traders will watch Fed and ECB commentary for clues about future monetary policy paths.
However, the main driver of EUR/USD remains the "negotiation track." Any updates on U.S.–EU or U.S.–China trade talks will overshadow macro reports. Unfortunately, forecasting progress is difficult. Talks appear stalled, but they are still ongoing.
If the news vacuum persists, EUR/USD will likely remain range-bound between 1.1170 and 1.1250. However, if progress is reported, the dollar may gain strength, and EUR/USD sellers could push toward the 1.1080 support level (the lower Bollinger Band on D1 and top of the Kumo cloud).
Conversely, bullish trade headlines or speculation could help buyers reclaim the 1.12 handle and test resistance at 1.1310 (midline of Bollinger Bands on the daily chart).
